This is the part that makes the method unusual, and it is the part that costs something to keep.
Correction, October 2026. Earlier versions of this site and of the CALIBRA volumes stated calibration scores, cohort sizes and audit results that were targets or illustrations, not measurements. They have been withdrawn. No Open Audit has yet closed. The first review of the Volume I pipeline cohort is on 6 January 2027. Its result will be published here whatever it shows.
The prediction is recorded. Every instruction goes into a standing register with its confidence range and the date it will be checked. It is written down before the outcome is known, which is the only time a prediction means anything.
The check happens at twelve months. The instruction is compared against what actually occurred. Not against a revised memory of what was intended.
The result is published either way. A method that only reports its successes is a marketing programme with a scoring system attached.
Almost no strategy framework commits in advance to being marked. Advice is given, the engagement ends, and nobody returns to check. That is not dishonesty. It is simply what happens when nobody has an obligation to look.
The series carries one design target, 0.80: the rate the method is built to hit. It is a target, not a measurement. No cohort has yet been audited against it, and Volume I states no target at all.
The target is not an observed result from client engagements, and it should not be read as a prediction of performance in any particular situation. Observed figures will be published here as audits close.